New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Oswaldo CabreraBatting2-4
- Luke WeaverPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Blue Jays- Brandon BeltBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching7.2 IP, 0 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 6Belt homered to right (409 feet), Varsho scored and Springer scored.0–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 5Biggio singled to center, Bichette scored.0–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 4Chapman homered to right (346 feet).0–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 3Varsho homered to right center (380 feet).0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 57%
- Fair odds
- TOR -118
- NYY +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 3.3 – 3.6 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +6 | NYY: Luke Weaver: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +46 Elo | TOR 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.15th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.413th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 11th of 3039–38 | Road vs home | 41–3614th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 7–5 TOR in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 12.