New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting2-3, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching9.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Blue Jays- Brandon BeltBatting2-3
- Jose BerriosPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 7Judge homered to left center (424 feet), Peraza scored.6–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 5Stanton singled to left, Judge scored and Rortvedt scored, Torres out at home on runner's fielder's choice.4–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 4Judge homered to right (395 feet), LeMahieu scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 57%
- Fair odds
- TOR -119
- NYY +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 3.4 – 3.8 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +10 | NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +47 Elo | TOR 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.616th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.15th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.513th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 13th of 3038–38 | Road vs home | 41–3514th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 6–5 TOR in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 11.