Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Harold RamirezBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cooper CriswellPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays- Daulton VarshoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Hyun Jin RyuPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 10Bichette doubled to left, Biggio scored.7–5
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging7–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 17–4
- 10Caminero reached on infield single to third, Tapia scored, Walls to second.7–4
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 16–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–4
- 10Walls singled to right, Basabe scored and J. Lowe scored, Tapia to third.6–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 5H. Ramírez homered to left center (395 feet), Arozarena scored.4–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 12–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–4
- 4Springer singled to right, Merrifield scored, Varsho to second.2–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 4Varsho singled to center, Kiermaier scored and Kirk scored, Merrifield to third.2–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Varsho homered to right (395 feet).2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 3J. Lowe doubled to right, H. Ramírez scored, Paredes to third.2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Paredes singled to center, Arozarena scored, H. Ramírez to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 47%
- Fair odds
- TOR -103
- TB +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.0 – 4.1 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −13 | TB: Shawn Armstrong: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · TOR: Hyun Jin Ryu: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +22 Elo | TB 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.615th of 30 |
| 4th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.14th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.2 | Margin | +0.512th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 6th of 3044–35 | Road vs home | 43–3613th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 5–6 TOR in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.