Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Kevin KiermaierBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Twins- Royce LewisBatting2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Kiermaier singled to left, Bichette scored, Kirk to second.1–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 3Lewis homered to right center (397 feet).0–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 30–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Lewis homered to left (386 feet), Julien scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 53%
- Fair odds
- MIN -109
- TOR +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.2 – 4.4 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | 0 | TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +18 Elo | MIN 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.13rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.77th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 5th of 3046–35 | Road vs home | 47–348th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 3–3 MIN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.