Minnesota Twins at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Alex KirilloffBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Rockies- Nolan JonesBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Connor SeaboldPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 11B. Doyle scored on Luplow wild pitch.2–3
- 11B. Doyle scored on Luplow wild pitch.2–3
- 11B. Doyle scored on Luplow wild pitch.2–3
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 8Bouchard homered to left (392 feet).2–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 32–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 4Jones homered to center (458 feet).2–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Kirilloff singled to left, Jeffers scored, Julien to second.2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Julien singled to left, Kepler scored, Jeffers to second.1–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 60%
- Fair odds
- MIN -116
- COL +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 5.9 – 5.6 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1433 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +15 | MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · COL: Brent Suter: team allows 0.75 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +69 Elo | MIN 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.518th of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.930th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −1.529th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 30 |
| 13th of 3040–40 | Road vs home | 36–4424th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 2–0 COL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.