Minnesota Twins at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Edouard JulienBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chris PaddackPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Rockies- Brenton DoyleBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Karl KauffmannPitching4.1 IP, 8 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bouchard scored on Keuchel wild pitch, B. Doyle to second, Trejo to third.14–6
- 8Bouchard scored on Keuchel wild pitch, B. Doyle to second on wild pitch by Keuchel, Trejo to third on wild pitch by Keuchel.14–6
- 8B. Doyle singled to left, Montero scored, Trejo to second, Bouchard to third.14–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play14–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul14–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 114–4
- 7B. Doyle homered to left center (451 feet), Trejo scored.14–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play14–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 214–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging14–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 114–2
- 7Bouchard homered to left center (399 feet).14–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play14–2
- 7Montero homered to left (370 feet).14–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play14–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking14–1
- 7Julien homered to center (452 feet), Taylor scored.14–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play14–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging12–0
- 7Wallner homered to center (432 feet).12–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play12–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking12–0
- 6Kepler homered to left (390 feet), Julien scored and Castro scored.11–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 18–0
- 6Taylor scored on T. Doyle wild pitch, Julien to third on wild pitch by T. Doyle.8–0
- 6Taylor scored on T. Doyle wild pitch, Julien to third on wild pitch by T. Doyle.8–0
- 6Julien doubled to right, Vázquez scored, Taylor to third.7–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 16–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 3Larnach homered to right (386 feet), Kirilloff scored, Solano scored and Wallner scored.6–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Vázquez singled to center, Wallner scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Wallner doubled to left, Solano scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 57%
- Fair odds
- MIN -114
- COL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 5.7 – 5.4 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1436 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +18 | MIN: Emilio Pagan (no track record yet) · COL: Matt Koch (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +52 Elo | MIN 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.518th of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.930th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −1.429th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 15th of 3039–40 | Road vs home | 36–4324th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 1–0 COL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.