Oakland Athletics at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Joey EstesPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Twins- Ryan JeffersBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Jeffers hit sacrifice fly to right, Larnach scored.4–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 14–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 8Larnach doubled to right, Stevenson scored.4–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 6Jeffers homered to left (377 feet), Kepler scored.4–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 5Rooker singled to right, Noda scored and A. Díaz scored.4–2
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 32–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 5A. Díaz doubled to left, Butler scored, Noda to third.2–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 3Brown singled to center, Butler scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Farmer doubled to right, Castro scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Julien homered to right (355 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 68%
- Fair odds
- MIN -152
- OAK +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.0 – 4.9 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1417 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | 0 | OAK: Joey Estes: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +130 Elo | MIN 67.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 60.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 4.14th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.1 | Margin | +0.77th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 28th of 3022–54 | Road vs home | 46–338th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 0–4 MIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.