Detroit Tigers at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Andy IbanezBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis MedinaPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rooker homered to center (402 feet), Gelof scored.7–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 17–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging7–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–1
- 9Smith scored on Hanifee wild pitch.7–1
- 9Smith scored on Hanifee wild pitch.7–1
- 8Short grounded into fielder's choice to first, Carpenter scored on fielding error by first baseman J. Diaz, Lipcius to second, Ibañez to third.7–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 26–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 16–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–0
- 8Ibañez singled to left, Torkelson scored, Carpenter to second.6–0
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–0
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging6–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 35–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 5McKinstry scored, Carpenter to second on a balk.5–0
- 5McKinstry scored on a balk, Carpenter to second on a balk.5–0
- 5McKinstry doubled to right, Vierling scored on throwing error by right fielder Rooker, McKinstry to third.4–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Vierling singled to center, P. Meadows scored.3–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Ibañez tripled to right, Torkelson scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Torkelson grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Vierling scored, Torkelson safe at second on throwing error by shortstop Allen.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 59%
- Fair odds
- DET -113
- OAK +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.2 – 4.0 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1417 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −9 | DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · OAK: Luis Medina: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +66 Elo | DET 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.630th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.829th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −2.230th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 12th of 3039–38 | Road vs home | 24–5330th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 1–2 OAK in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.