Detroit Tigers at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Athletics- Esteury RuizBatting2-4
- JP SearsPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 3Torkelson singled to right, P. Meadows scored and Vierling scored, Ibañez to second, Torkelson to second, Ibañez safe at third on throwing error by right fielder Rooker.2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 55%
- Fair odds
- DET -109
- OAK +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.1 – 3.9 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1421 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −1 | DET: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +37 Elo | DET 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.630th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −2.130th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 12th of 3040–40 | Road vs home | 26–5430th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 2–4 OAK in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.