Detroit Tigers at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Zach McKinstryBatting2-5
- Joey WentzPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Athletics- Esteury RuizBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joe BoylePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Gelof singled to right, Ruiz scored, Noda to third.1–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 8Noda doubled to right, Allen scored, Ruiz to third.1–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 21–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 3Ruiz homered to left (404 feet), Allen scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3McKinstry scored on error, Torkelson safe at first on fielding error by third baseman J. Diaz.1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 58%
- Fair odds
- DET -112
- OAK +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.3 – 4.1 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1418 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −13 | DET: Miguel Diaz: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · OAK: Joe Boyle: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +59 Elo | DET 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.630th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.829th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −2.130th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 11th of 3040–39 | Road vs home | 25–5430th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 2–3 OAK in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.