Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Zach NetoBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Carson FulmerPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Twins- Ryan JeffersBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 7Jeffers homered to left center (387 feet), Farmer scored.3–9
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 33–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging3–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–7
- 7Farmer singled to left, Wallner scored.3–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–7
- 7Kepler homered to right center (397 feet), Julien scored.3–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–6
- 6Larnach grounded out to second, Jeffers scored.3–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 6Jeffers tripled to center, Wallner scored.3–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Neto doubled to center, Grichuk scored.3–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 3Polanco homered to right (374 feet).2–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 32–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 3Drury doubled to left, Grichuk scored and Neto scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Larnach singled to right, Kirilloff scored, Wallner to third.0–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 59%
- Fair odds
- MIN -125
- LAA +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.4 – 4.9 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −2 | LAA: Andrew Wantz: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +61 Elo | MIN 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.14th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.69th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3035–45 | Road vs home | 44–339th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 3–2 MIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.