Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Jo AdellBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kenny RosenbergPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Twins- Kyle FarmerBatting2-3
- Sonny GrayPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 4Adell homered to center (428 feet).1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 60%
- Fair odds
- MIN -126
- LAA +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.7 – 5.2 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +6 | LAA: Kenny Rosenberg: team allows 0.81 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · MIN: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +68 Elo | MIN 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 55.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.15th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 24th of 3034–45 | Road vs home | 44–328th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 2–2 MIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.