Oakland Athletics at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Seth BrownBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Paul BlackburnPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Twins- Matt WallnerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Vázquez doubled to right, Solano scored, Wallner scored and Kirilloff scored.3–11
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–11
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–8
- 7Farmer grounded out to third, Polanco scored, Kirilloff to second, Solano to third.3–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–7
- 7J. Diaz doubled to right, Langeliers scored.3–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–7
- 7Brown homered to center (405 feet), Rooker scored.2–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–7
- 5Kirilloff homered to left (365 feet), Solano scored.0–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 1Wallner homered to center (463 feet), Kepler scored, Kirilloff scored and Farmer scored.0–5
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–5
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Farmer walked, Solano scored, Kirilloff to second, Kepler to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 40–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 66%
- Fair odds
- MIN -149
- OAK +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.0 – 4.9 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1419 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +2 | OAK: Paul Blackburn: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +118 Elo | MIN 66.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 59.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 4.13rd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.1 | Margin | +0.77th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 28th of 3022–53 | Road vs home | 45–339th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 0–3 MIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.