Minnesota Twins at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Ryan JeffersBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Rockies- Alan TrejoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ty BlachPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kepler hit sacrifice fly to center, Stevenson scored.7–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–6
- 7Jeffers homered to left (465 feet).6–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–6
- 7Larnach homered to center (442 feet).5–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–6
- 5Rodgers homered to center (454 feet).4–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 14–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–5
- 4Trejo homered to left (403 feet), Díaz scored and Bouchard scored.4–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–5
- 3Jones singled to center, Blackmon scored.4–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 3Farmer grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Luplow scored, Jeffers out at second.4–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 2Montero homered to center (449 feet).3–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Taylor homered to left (468 feet), Kepler scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Farmer singled to right, Luplow scored, Jeffers to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 60%
- Fair odds
- MIN -115
- COL +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 5.6 – 5.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1437 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +3 | MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · COL: Ty Blach: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +69 Elo | MIN 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.930th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −1.429th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 30 |
| 15th of 3038–40 | Road vs home | 36–4223rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.