Oakland Athletics at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Ryan NodaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis MedinaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Twins- Willi CastroBatting1-2
- Sonny GrayPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Noda homered to right (404 feet).2–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 6Wallner grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Castro scored, Kirilloff out at second, Solano to third.1–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Allen singled to right, Bleday scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 70%
- Fair odds
- MIN -155
- OAK +155 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.0 – 5.0 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1416 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +9 | OAK: Luis Medina: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIN: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +149 Elo | MIN 70.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 60.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 4.14th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.1 | Margin | +0.77th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 29th of 3022–55 | Road vs home | 47–338th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 0–5 MIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.