Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching5.2 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Bichette doubled to left, Springer scored and Biggio scored.8–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 6Díaz doubled to center, Pinto scored.6–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 6Kiermaier singled to left, Varsho scored, Kirk to second.6–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 6Kirk singled to center, Bichette scored and Turner scored, Varsho to second.5–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 6Guerrero Jr. homered to center (450 feet).3–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 6Biggio homered to right (366 feet).2–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 4Springer homered to left center (392 feet).1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Díaz homered to left (355 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 57%
- ML TOR +125 / TB -150
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- TB: Elo 53.7%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- TB -135
- TOR +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.4 – 4.1 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −2 | TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +26 Elo | TB 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.34th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.15th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +1.23rd of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 5th of 3046–35 | Road vs home | 53–281st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 6–7 TB in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.