Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Evan CarterBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Rays- Isaac ParedesBatting2-4
- Zach EflinPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Mead singled to left, Lowe scored, Paredes to second.7–1
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play7–1
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball 27–0
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul7–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 17–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging7–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–0
- 6Seager doubled to right, Semien scored.7–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 6Semien doubled to center, Jung scored.6–0
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball In Play6–0
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 25–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking5–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 5Lowe grounded out to pitcher, Seager scored, Grossman to second.5–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 4Carter homered to right center (391 feet), Jung scored.4–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Jung tripled to right, Taveras scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 4García homered to left (416 feet).1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 56%
- Fair odds
- TB -119
- TEX +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.4 – 4.8 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +2 | TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TB: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +45 Elo | TB 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.4 | Runs scored | 5.34th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.15th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +1.23rd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 13th of 3040–41 | Road vs home | 53–281st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 5–2 TB in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.