Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Crawford doubled to left, Raleigh scored and Moore scored, France to third.2–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 4Rodríguez homered to right center (363 feet).2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4García homered to left center (404 feet).2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 3Taveras homered to center (415 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 51%
- Fair odds
- SEA -108
- TEX +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.1 – 4.2 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +3 | TEX: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +4 Elo | SEA 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.16th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.1 | Margin | +0.610th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 11th of 3039–38 | Road vs home | 42–3513th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 8–1 SEA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.