Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Mitch GarverBatting3-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jon GrayPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Angels- Logan O'HoppeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Patrick SandovalPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Heim scored on Barria wild pitch, Taveras to second on wild pitch by Barria.5–1
- 8Heim scored on Barria wild pitch, Taveras to second on wild pitch by Barria.5–1
- 7Semien homered to left (368 feet).4–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Lowe homered to right (390 feet).3–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 6Garver homered to left (382 feet).2–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 6García homered to right center (394 feet).1–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2O'Hoppe homered to center (397 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 60%
- Fair odds
- TEX -108
- LAA +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 5.1 – 5.0 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −22 | TEX: Jon Gray: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAA: Patrick Sandoval: team allows 1.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +68 Elo | TEX 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.616th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.225th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −0.622nd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 12th of 3037–37 | Road vs home | 35–4023rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 5–5 LAA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.