Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dane DunningPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Angels- Logan O'HoppeBatting1-4
- Griffin CanningPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Semien homered to center (418 feet).5–0
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–0
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 14–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 9Carter homered to right (383 feet), Heim scored.4–0
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–0
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3García homered to center (407 feet).2–0
- 3Pitch 10 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 9 : Ball 31–0
- 3Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1García doubled to left, Semien scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 56%
- Fair odds
- TEX -106
- LAA +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 5.0 – 4.9 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +3 | TEX: Dane Dunning: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAA: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +40 Elo | TEX 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.615th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.125th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −0.622nd of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 14th of 3038–38 | Road vs home | 36–4123rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 6–6 LAA in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 12.