Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Evan CarterBatting2-3
- Martin PerezPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Mariners- Eugenio SuarezBatting1-3
- George KirbyPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 4Canzone grounded out to first, Suárez scored, France to second, Kelenic to third.0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 52%
- Fair odds
- SEA -109
- TEX +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.1 – 4.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +1 | TEX: Dane Dunning: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +14 Elo | SEA 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.14th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.610th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 13th of 3040–40 | Road vs home | 44–3612th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 9–3 SEA in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.