Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Jonah HeimBatting1-4, 3 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching4.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Mariners- Eugenio SuarezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching2.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Suárez homered to left (370 feet).6–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 26–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 16–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 8Semien doubled to left, Carter scored.6–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 4Heim walked, Seager scored, Jung to second, García to third.5–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 45–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 34–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 3Taveras singled to right, Jung scored, Heim to second.4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Heim singled to right, García scored and Lowe scored, Jung to third.3–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 3Lowe singled to center, Semien scored, García to third.1–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 55%
- Fair odds
- SEA -112
- TEX +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.1 – 4.4 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +9 | TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +38 Elo | SEA 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.15th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 14th of 3039–40 | Road vs home | 44–3510th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 8–3 SEA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.