Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Rays- Randy ArozarenaBatting2-4
- Tyler GlasnowPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 6Seager singled to center, Carter scored and Semien scored on throwing error by center fielder Siri, Seager to third.4–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Seager scored, García to second, Grossman to third on wild pitch by Glasnow.2–0
- 5Seager scored on Glasnow wild pitch, García to second on wild pitch by Glasnow, Grossman to third on wild pitch by Glasnow.2–0
- 2Jung hit sacrifice fly to right, Lowe scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 56%
- Fair odds
- TB -120
- TEX +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.5 – 4.9 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +10 | TEX: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +39 Elo | TB 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.4 | Runs scored | 5.34th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.15th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +1.23rd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 13th of 3040–41 | Road vs home | 53–281st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 4–2 TB in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.