Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Rays- Brandon LoweBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kirk hit sacrifice fly to right, Turner scored.2–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–8
- 8Díaz singled to center, Rortvedt scored and Caballero scored.1–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 11–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 6Caballero grounded into fielder's choice to third, Siri scored, Rortvedt out at second.1–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul1–5
- 5Arozarena singled to center, Díaz scored, B. Lowe to second.1–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 3B. Lowe homered to right center (444 feet), Rortvedt scored, Caballero scored and Díaz scored.1–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 3Springer homered to left (362 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 54%
- ML TOR +110 / TB -130
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- TB: Elo 50.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -119
- TOR +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.8 – 4.2 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −14 | TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.70 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +6 Elo | TB 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.34th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.15th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +1.23rd of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 5th of 3046–35 | Road vs home | 53–281st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 7–7 TB in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.