Colorado Rockies at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Charlie BlackmonBatting1-4
- Dakota HudsonPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Cubs- Cody BellingerBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 7Bellinger singled to right, Gomes scored and Tauchman scored, Suzuki thrown out at third.0–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 6Morel singled to left, Happ scored on fielding error by left fielder Jones, Suzuki scored on error and Morel scored on throwing error by left fielder Jones.0–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 69%
- ML COL +205 / CHC -250
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.1 pts
- CHC: Elo 60.4%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- CHC -218
- COL +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 2.6 – 4.4 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1447 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −3 | COL: Dakota Hudson: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHC: Shota Imanaga (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +73 Elo | CHC 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 58.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| COL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.713th of 30 |
| 28th of 308.0 | Runs allowed | 6.722nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−4.5 | Margin | −2.020th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 2–4 CHC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.