Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ryan McMahonBatting2-2, 1 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching2.1 IP, 10 ER, 2 K
Diamondbacks- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Batting3-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 3Alexander singled to center, Moreno scored.1–16
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–16
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 31–15
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 21–15
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–15
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–15
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–15
- 3Suárez hit sacrifice fly to center, Walker scored, Moreno to third.1–15
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–15
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 31–14
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–14
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–14
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–14
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–14
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–14
- 3Moreno doubled to right, Carroll scored and Gurriel Jr. scored, Walker to third.1–14
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–14
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–12
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–12
- 3Gurriel Jr. singled to center, Marte scored and Perdomo scored, Carroll to second.1–12
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–12
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–10
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–10
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–10
- 3Marte singled to left, Thomas scored, Perdomo to second.1–10
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–10
- 3Perdomo singled to right, Suárez scored, Thomas to third.1–9
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–9
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–8
- 3Thomas doubled to right, Moreno scored, Suárez to third.1–8
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–8
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–7
- 3Suárez singled to center, Walker scored, Moreno to second.1–7
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–7
- 3Moreno singled to center, Gurriel Jr. scored, Walker to third.1–6
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–6
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 3Walker doubled to center, Marte scored and Carroll scored, Gurriel Jr. to third.1–5
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 66%
- ML COL +185 / ARI -225
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.6 pts
- ARI: Elo 58.7%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- ARI -197
- COL +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.3 – 4.7 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1451 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −1 | COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +61 Elo | ARI 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 56.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.614th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.9 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.5 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 30th of 3022–59 | Road vs home | 43–3814th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 3–10 ARI in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.