Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Diamondbacks- Tommy PhamBatting2-4
- Brandon PfaadtPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Perdomo singled to left, Rivera scored.3–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 3Seager homered to right (421 feet), Semien scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Semien singled to center, Lowe scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 51%
- Fair odds
- ARI -106
- TEX +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.0 – 4.1 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +7 | TEX: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +4 Elo | ARI 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.614th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 13th of 3040–41 | Road vs home | 43–3814th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 2–4 ARI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.