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Texas Rangers at Houston Astros, MLB forecast

FinalSeries tied 3-3

Away

Rangers

90-72

9–2

at

Home

Astros

90-72

TEX 48%HOU 52%

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Daikin Park · FS1

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.

HOU75%50%75%TEXStart12345678Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Rangers
  • Adolis GarciaBatting1-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
  • Nathan EovaldiPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Astros
  • Yordan AlvarezBatting2-3, 1 RBI
  • Framber ValdezPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K

Scoring summary

  • 9García homered to left (375 feet), Taveras scored, Semien scored and Seager scored.9–2
  • 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–2
  • 9Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
  • 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–2
  • 9Seager hit by pitch, Jung scored, Semien to second, Taveras to third.5–2
  • 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
  • 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
  • 8Garver doubled to left, Carter scored.4–2
  • 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
  • 8Pitch 4 : Ball 33–2
  • 8Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
  • 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
  • 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
  • 6Dubón hit sacrifice fly to right, Alvarez scored.3–2
  • 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
  • 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
  • 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
  • 4Heim homered to right (336 feet), Garver scored.3–1
  • 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
  • 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
  • 2Garver homered to right center (375 feet).1–1
  • 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
  • 1Alvarez singled to center, Altuve scored, Brantley to second.0–1
  • 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
  • 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.

Astros 52%

Toss-upMiss
TEX 48%HOU 52%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
HOU 52%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
HOU 52%
Fair odds
HOU -110
TEX +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
TEX 4.4 – 4.6 HOU
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorTEXHOUWhy
Team rating15381540Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers0−5TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsHOU +14 EloHOU 52.1%
Market-implied ratingsHOU 52.5%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastHOU 52.5%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.

Try another venue →
Texas Rangers and Houston Astros compared, with each team's league rank
TEXStatHOU
3rd of 305.4Runs scored5.15th of 30
13th of 304.4Runs allowed4.39th of 30
4th of 30+1.0Margin+0.85th of 30
6th of 306–4Last 106–46th of 30
13th of 3040–41Road vs home39–4219th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

RangersAstros
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJul

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Head to head

TEX 6–12 HOU in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 18.