Houston Astros at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Altuve homered to left (382 feet), Diaz scored and Kessinger scored.5–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 6García homered to left center (396 feet), Seager scored and Carter scored.2–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6J. Abreu singled to center, Bregman scored, Alvarez to third.2–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 5Lowe homered to left (380 feet).1–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Bregman homered to left center (416 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 53%
- Fair odds
- TEX -112
- HOU +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.9 – 5.2 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +12 | HOU: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +23 Elo | TEX 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.43rd of 30 |
| 9th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +1.04th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3051–30 | Road vs home | 50–314th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 11–6 TEX in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 17.
- Oct 19HOU 10 @ TEX 3PlayoffsPicked TEX 53%Miss
- Oct 18HOU 8 @ TEX 5PlayoffsPicked TEX 53%Miss
- Oct 16TEX 5 @ HOU 4PlayoffsPicked HOU 52%Miss
- Oct 15TEX 2 @ HOU 0PlayoffsPicked HOU 52%Miss
- Sep 6HOU 12 @ TEX 3Picked TEX 52%Miss
- Sep 5HOU 14 @ TEX 1Picked TEX 52%Miss
- Sep 4HOU 13 @ TEX 6Picked TEX 52%Miss
- Jul 26TEX 13 @ HOU 5Picked HOU 52%Miss