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Houston Astros at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast

FinalSeries tied 2-2

Away

Astros

90-72

10–3

at

Home

Rangers

90-72

HOU 47%TEX 53%

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Globe Life Field · FS1

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.

TEX75%50%75%HOUStart12345678Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Astros
  • Jose AbreuBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
  • Hunter BrownPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Rangers
  • Corey SeagerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
  • Dane DunningPitching2.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K

Scoring summary

  • 8Alvarez singled to right, Altuve scored.10–3
  • 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play10–3
  • 8Pitch 5 : Ball 39–3
  • 8Pitch 4 : Ball 29–3
  • 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–3
  • 8Pitch 2 : Ball 19–3
  • 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–3
  • 7McCormick homered to left center (392 feet), J. Abreu scored.9–3
  • 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–3
  • 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–3
  • 4J. Abreu homered to left center (438 feet), Altuve scored and Dubón scored.7–3
  • 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–3
  • 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
  • 4Pitch 4 : Ball 24–3
  • 4Pitch 3 : Ball 14–3
  • 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
  • 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
  • 4Alvarez hit sacrifice fly to center, Maldonado scored, Altuve to third.4–3
  • 4Pitch 9 : Ball In Play4–3
  • 4Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
  • 4Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
  • 4Pitch 6 : Ball 33–3
  • 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
  • 4Pitch 4 : Ball 23–3
  • 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–3
  • 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
  • 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
  • 3Seager homered to left center (401 feet).3–3
  • 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
  • 2Jung hit sacrifice fly to left, Garver scored.3–2
  • 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–2
  • 2Pitch 5 : Ball 33–1
  • 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
  • 2Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
  • 2Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
  • 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
  • 2García homered to left (379 feet).3–1
  • 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–1
  • 2Pitch 5 : Ball 23–0
  • 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.

Rangers 53%

Toss-upMiss
HOU 47%TEX 53%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
TEX 53%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
TEX 52%
Fair odds
TEX -112
HOU +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
HOU 4.9 – 5.1 TEX
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorHOUTEXWhy
Team rating15361542Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers+9−2HOU: Jose Urquidy: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsTEX +14 EloTEX 52.0%
Market-implied ratingsTEX 53.1%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastTEX 52.9%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.

Try another venue →
Houston Astros and Texas Rangers compared, with each team's league rank
HOUStatTEX
5th of 305.1Runs scored5.43rd of 30
9th of 304.3Runs allowed4.413th of 30
5th of 30+0.8Margin+1.04th of 30
6th of 306–4Last 106–46th of 30
3rd of 3051–30Road vs home50–314th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

AstrosRangers
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJul

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Head to head

HOU 10–6 TEX in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 16.