Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jose AbreuBatting2-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Cristian JavierPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Twins- Willi CastroBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9J. Abreu homered to left center (440 feet), Tucker scored.9–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 9Alvarez homered to right (364 feet).7–1
- 9Pitch 9 : Ball In Play7–1
- 9Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 26–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 16–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 6Castro singled to right, Correa scored, Wallner to second.6–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 16–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–0
- 6Bregman singled to center, Peña scored, Maldonado to second.6–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 5Bregman homered to left (353 feet).5–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 1J. Abreu homered to left (442 feet), Alvarez scored and Tucker scored.4–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Tucker singled to left, Altuve scored, Alvarez to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 55%
- Fair odds
- MIN -111
- HOU +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.2 – 4.4 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +13 | HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +32 Elo | MIN 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.13rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.77th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3051–30 | Road vs home | 47–348th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 3–5 MIN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.
- Oct 8MIN 6 @ HOU 2PlayoffsPicked HOU 53%Miss
- Oct 7MIN 4 @ HOU 6PlayoffsPicked HOU 53%Hit
- May 31MIN 8 @ HOU 2Picked HOU 54%Miss
- May 30MIN 1 @ HOU 5Picked HOU 53%Hit
- May 29MIN 7 @ HOU 5Picked HOU 53%Miss
- Apr 9HOU 5 @ MIN 1Picked MIN 54%Miss
- Apr 8HOU 6 @ MIN 9Picked MIN 53%Hit
- Apr 7HOU 2 @ MIN 3Picked MIN 53%Hit