Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Jorge PolancoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Alvarez homered to right (384 feet).4–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–5
- 7Lewis homered to left (409 feet).4–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 7Polanco homered to right (399 feet), Wallner scored and Jeffers scored.3–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 20–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 5McCormick singled to left, Alvarez scored, J. Abreu thrown out at third.0–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 5J. Abreu singled to left, Bregman scored, Alvarez to second.0–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 3Alvarez homered to right (379 feet), Bregman scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Altuve homered to left (377 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 53%
- Fair odds
- HOU -113
- MIN +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.3 – 4.5 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +10 | MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · HOU: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +24 Elo | HOU 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.15th of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.39th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 13th of 3040–41 | Road vs home | 39–4219th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 4–2 HOU in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.