Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Carlos CorreaBatting3-4, 3 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Alvarez homered to left center (378 feet), Bregman scored.6–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 7Julien singled to right, Lewis scored, Jeffers to second, Correa thrown out at home.6–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 25–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 15–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 5Correa singled to center, Solano scored and Taylor scored, Lewis to third.5–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Farmer homered to left center (377 feet), Castro scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Correa doubled to center, Polanco scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 53%
- Fair odds
- HOU -113
- MIN +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.3 – 4.6 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +2 | MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +20 Elo | HOU 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.15th of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.39th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 13th of 3040–41 | Road vs home | 39–4219th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 4–3 HOU in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.