Texas Rangers at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Leody TaverasBatting2-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Astros- Alex BregmanBatting1-4
- Justin VerlanderPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Taveras homered to right center (398 feet).2–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Heim singled to center, Carter scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 51%
- Fair odds
- HOU -109
- TEX +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.5 – 4.7 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +7 | TEX: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +10 Elo | HOU 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.4 | Runs scored | 5.15th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.39th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 13th of 3040–41 | Road vs home | 39–4219th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 4–9 HOU in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 13.