Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Mitch GarverBatting2-6, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Orioles- Aaron HicksBatting2-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching2.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Hicks homered to right center (411 feet), Henderson scored and Hays scored.11–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–5
- 9Semien grounded out to shortstop, Jung scored.11–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–5
- 5Henderson homered to right (401 feet).10–5
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play10–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 310–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 210–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 110–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging10–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul10–4
- 5Garver grounded into double play, third to first, Taveras scored, Seager to second, Semien out at third.10–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 29–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 19–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging9–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–4
- 4Mountcastle hit sacrifice fly to right, Mateo scored.9–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–4
- 4Mateo singled to center, Westburg scored.9–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul9–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 19–2
- 3Garver homered to left (419 feet), Taveras scored, Semien scored and Seager scored.9–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 35–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 25–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 2Heim singled to left, Garver scored, Carter to third.5–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 2García singled to center, Seager scored, Garver to second.4–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 2Garver reached on infield single to pitcher, Taveras scored, Seager to second.3–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 52%
- Fair odds
- BAL -117
- TEX +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.7 – 4.1 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | +1 | TEX: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.84 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +13 Elo | BAL 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.4 | Runs scored | 5.07th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.27th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 13th of 3040–41 | Road vs home | 49–325th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 4–3 BAL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.