Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Masataka YoshidaBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Kutter CrawfordPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Orioles- Anthony SantanderBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Yoshida doubled to second, Reyes scored, Turner to third.2–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–5
- 8Santander singled to right, Henderson scored and Mateo scored.1–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 21–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 11–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 8Mateo grounded into fielder's choice to second, Westburg scored, Henderson third.1–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 8Story reached on infield single to second, Turner scored, Duvall to third.1–2
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 30–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 7Kjerstad reached on infield single to second, Mountcastle scored on fielding error by second baseman Reyes.0–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 7Mountcastle doubled to right, Mateo scored.0–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 61%
- Fair odds
- BAL -136
- BOS +136 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.7 – 4.3 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | 0 | BOS: Kutter Crawford: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BAL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +77 Elo | BAL 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 57.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.07th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.27th of 30 |
| 14th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 16th of 3038–41 | Road vs home | 48–315th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 5–6 BAL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.