Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Trevor StoryBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Orioles- Ryan MountcastleBatting2-4
- John MeansPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Devers grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Rafaela scored.3–0
- 9Pitch 8 : Ball In Play3–0
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 32–0
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 22–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 12–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 5Story homered to left (413 feet), Refsnyder scored.2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 59%
- Fair odds
- BAL -135
- BOS +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.7 – 4.3 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −4 | BOS: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.76 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · BAL: John Means: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +64 Elo | BAL 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 57.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.07th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.27th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 16th of 3037–41 | Road vs home | 48–305th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 4–6 BAL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.