Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Josh JungBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Orioles- Anthony SantanderBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 6Santander homered to right center (420 feet).3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 6Jung homered to center (403 feet).3–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 4Mountcastle doubled to left, Santander scored.2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Heim singled to center, Carter scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 4Carter doubled to right, García scored.1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 57%
- Fair odds
- BAL -122
- TEX +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.8 – 4.2 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +14 | TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +47 Elo | BAL 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.4 | Runs scored | 5.07th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.27th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 13th of 3040–41 | Road vs home | 49–325th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 3–3 BAL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.