Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Trevor StoryBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Tanner HouckPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching2.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rutschman singled to left, McCann scored.6–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 16–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 7Abreu singled to left, McGuire scored, Story to second.6–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking5–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 25–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 7Story singled to right, Reyes scored, McGuire to third.5–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 7McGuire grounded into fielder's choice to third, Refsnyder and Valdez score on fielding error, Reyes to second.4–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 12–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Verdugo scored on error, Devers safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Henderson.2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Valdez scored on throwing error by catcher McCann, Verdugo stole third.1–0
- 3Valdez scored on throwing error by catcher McCann, Verdugo stole third.1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 66%
- Fair odds
- BAL -141
- BOS +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.7 – 4.4 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +20 | BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 1.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +114 Elo | BAL 65.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 58.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.07th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.27th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 16th of 3038–42 | Road vs home | 49–315th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 5–7 BAL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.