Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Lowe homered to right center (437 feet).1–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 5Henderson singled to right, Westburg scored.1–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–6
- 2García homered to left center (418 feet), Seager scored and Garver scored.0–6
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–6
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 2Garver doubled to shortstop, Jung scored and Semien scored, Seager to third.0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Seager homered to right center (445 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 51%
- Fair odds
- TEX -105
- BAL +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 5.0 – 5.1 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −2 | BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +9 Elo | TEX 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.43rd of 30 |
| 7th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +1.04th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 1st of 3052–29 | Road vs home | 50–314th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 3–5 TEX in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 8.
- Oct 8TEX 11 @ BAL 8PlayoffsPicked BAL 54%Miss
- Oct 7TEX 3 @ BAL 2PlayoffsPicked BAL 55%Miss
- May 28TEX 2 @ BAL 3Picked BAL 53%Hit
- May 27TEX 5 @ BAL 3Picked BAL 53%Miss
- May 26TEX 12 @ BAL 2Picked BAL 52%Miss
- Apr 5BAL 2 @ TEX 5Picked TEX 53%Hit
- Apr 4BAL 7 @ TEX 2Picked TEX 53%Miss
- Apr 3BAL 2 @ TEX 0Picked TEX 53%Miss