Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jose AbreuBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose UrquidyPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Twins- Edouard JulienBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris PaddackPitching2.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Julien homered to left (366 feet).3–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 4J. Abreu homered to right center (424 feet), Alvarez scored.3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Brantley homered to right center (399 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Lewis homered to left center (398 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 50%
- Fair odds
- MIN -107
- HOU +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.2 – 4.4 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −6 | HOU: Jose Urquidy: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +1 Elo | HOU 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.13rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.77th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3051–30 | Road vs home | 47–348th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 4–5 MIN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.
- Oct 10HOU 9 @ MIN 1PlayoffsPicked MIN 53%Miss
- Oct 8MIN 6 @ HOU 2PlayoffsPicked HOU 53%Miss
- Oct 7MIN 4 @ HOU 6PlayoffsPicked HOU 53%Hit
- May 31MIN 8 @ HOU 2Picked HOU 54%Miss
- May 30MIN 1 @ HOU 5Picked HOU 53%Hit
- May 29MIN 7 @ HOU 5Picked HOU 53%Miss
- Apr 9HOU 5 @ MIN 1Picked MIN 54%Miss
- Apr 8HOU 6 @ MIN 9Picked MIN 53%Hit