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Texas Rangers at Houston Astros, MLB forecast

FinalTEX leads series 2-0

Away

Rangers

90-72

5–4

at

Home

Astros

90-72

TEX 48%HOU 52%

You didn't pick this one.

Daikin Park · Fox, FS1

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.

HOU75%50%75%TEXStart12345678Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Rangers
  • Jonah HeimBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
  • Nathan EovaldiPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Astros
  • Yordan AlvarezBatting2-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI
  • Framber ValdezPitching2.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K

Scoring summary

  • 8Alvarez homered to right (385 feet).5–4
  • 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–4
  • 6Brantley doubled to center, Alvarez scored.5–3
  • 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
  • 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
  • 4Bregman homered to left (360 feet).5–2
  • 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–2
  • 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
  • 4Pitch 3 : Ball 15–1
  • 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–1
  • 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
  • 3Heim homered to left (408 feet).5–1
  • 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
  • 3Pitch 3 : Ball 14–1
  • 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
  • 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
  • 2Alvarez homered to right center (420 feet).4–1
  • 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
  • 2Pitch 3 : Ball 24–0
  • 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
  • 2Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
  • 1Lowe singled to left, García scored, Garver to second.4–0
  • 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
  • 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
  • 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
  • 1Garver singled to left, Grossman scored, García to second.3–0
  • 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
  • 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
  • 1García singled to right, Seager scored, Grossman to third.2–0
  • 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
  • 1Semien scored on throwing error by Valdez. Grossman safe at first on fielding error by Valdez. Grossman to second, Seager to third.1–0
  • 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
  • 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
  • 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
  • 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
  • 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.

Astros 52%

Toss-upMiss
TEX 48%HOU 52%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
HOU 52%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
HOU 51%
Fair odds
HOU -108
TEX +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
TEX 4.4 – 4.5 HOU
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorTEXHOUWhy
Team rating15431534Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers+2−3TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsHOU +5 EloHOU 50.7%
Market-implied ratingsHOU 52.1%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastHOU 51.9%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.

Try another venue →
Texas Rangers and Houston Astros compared, with each team's league rank
TEXStatHOU
3rd of 305.4Runs scored5.15th of 30
13th of 304.4Runs allowed4.39th of 30
4th of 30+1.0Margin+0.85th of 30
6th of 306–4Last 106–46th of 30
13th of 3040–41Road vs home39–4219th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

RangersAstros
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJul

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Head to head

TEX 5–9 HOU in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 14.