Arizona Diamondbacks at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Tommy PhamBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 11García homered to right (373 feet).5–6
- 11Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–6
- 11Pitch 4 : Ball 35–5
- 11Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging5–5
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball 25–5
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 9Seager homered to right (418 feet), Taveras scored.5–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–5
- 5Marte doubled to center, Perdomo scored.5–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 4Pham homered to left (419 feet).4–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 3Garver walked, Seager scored, García to second, Carter to third.3–3
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball 43–3
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking3–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 33–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 3Marte grounded into fielder's choice to first, Carroll scored.3–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 32–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 3Carroll tripled to center, Thomas scored and Longoria scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 1García singled to left, Carter scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 57%
- Fair odds
- TEX -118
- ARI +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.7 – 5.1 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +3 | ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +50 Elo | TEX 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.43rd of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +1.04th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 11th of 3041–40 | Road vs home | 50–314th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 3–1 TEX in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.