Arizona Diamondbacks at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Gabriel MorenoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Rangers- Mitch GarverBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rivera singled to left, Peterson scored and Gurriel Jr. scored, Rivera thrown out at second.9–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 27–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 17–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–1
- 8Carroll singled to right, Perdomo scored, Marte to third.7–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–1
- 8Marte singled to center, Pham scored and Rivera scored, Perdomo to second.6–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 7Carroll singled to left, Longoria scored.4–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 7Longoria singled to left, Thomas scored.3–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 5Garver homered to left (404 feet).2–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 4Gurriel Jr. singled to left, Pham scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 4Moreno homered to center (413 feet).1–0
- 4Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 30–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 58%
- Fair odds
- TEX -120
- ARI +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.7 – 5.1 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +9 | ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +59 Elo | TEX 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.43rd of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +1.04th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 11th of 3041–40 | Road vs home | 50–314th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 3–2 TEX in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.