Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting1-4
- Zac GallenPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Semien homered to left center (406 feet), Heim scored.5–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 9Heim singled to center, Jung scored. Lowe scored on fielding error by center fielder Thomas, Heim to third.3–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 7Garver singled to center, Seager scored, Carter to third.1–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 48%
- Fair odds
- ARI -103
- TEX +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.2 – 4.2 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | 0 | TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +17 Elo | TEX 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.614th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 13th of 3040–41 | Road vs home | 43–3814th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 4–4 ARI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.
- Oct 31TEX 11 @ ARI 7PlayoffsPicked ARI 51%Miss
- Oct 30TEX 3 @ ARI 1PlayoffsPicked ARI 51%Miss
- Oct 28ARI 9 @ TEX 1PlayoffsPicked TEX 54%Miss
- Oct 27ARI 5 @ TEX 6PlayoffsPicked TEX 54%Hit
- Aug 22TEX 3 @ ARI 6Picked ARI 50%Hit
- Aug 21TEX 3 @ ARI 4Picked TEX 50%Miss
- May 3ARI 12 @ TEX 7Picked TEX 54%Miss
- May 2ARI 4 @ TEX 6Picked TEX 53%Hit