Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting2-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Diamondbacks- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Batting2-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Moreno singled to center, Lawlar scored and Perdomo scored.11–7
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play11–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul11–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking11–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 211–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 111–5
- 8Gurriel Jr. homered to left (382 feet), Moreno scored and Walker scored.11–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging11–2
- 8Pham hit sacrifice fly to right, Carroll scored, Moreno to third.11–2
- 8Pitch 10 : Ball In Play11–2
- 8Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul11–1
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball 311–1
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul11–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul11–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul11–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 211–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging11–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking11–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 111–1
- 8Heim homered to right (377 feet).11–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 110–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–1
- 4Gurriel Jr. hit sacrifice fly to right, Moreno scored, Walker to third.10–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play10–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 210–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul10–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 110–0
- 3Semien homered to left center (383 feet), Heim scored and Jankowski scored.10–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–0
- 3Jankowski doubled to right, Jung scored and Lowe scored, Heim to third.7–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 15–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 2Seager homered to center (431 feet), Semien scored.5–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 2Semien tripled to left, Taveras scored and Jankowski scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 49%
- Fair odds
- ARI -104
- TEX +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.9 – 4.0 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −10 | TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Joe Mantiply: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +10 Elo | TEX 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.614th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 13th of 3040–41 | Road vs home | 43–3814th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 3–4 ARI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.