Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Elias DiazBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Diamondbacks- Alek ThomasBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Blackmon scored on Thompson wild pitch.3–7
- 8Blackmon scored on Thompson wild pitch.3–7
- 8Blackmon tripled to center, Doyle scored.2–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–7
- 6Thomas homered to right (399 feet), Moreno scored and Suárez scored.1–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–7
- 6Suárez singled to right, Pederson scored, Moreno to third.1–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 31–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 3Pederson reached on infield single to shortstop, Marte scored.1–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 31–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 2Díaz homered to left center (411 feet).1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Walker homered to left center (411 feet).0–2
- 1Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 1Gurriel Jr. homered to left (385 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 69%
- ML COL +205 / ARI -250
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.5 pts
- ARI: Elo 60.0%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- ARI -218
- COL +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.6 – 5.4 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1447 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +5 | COL: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.80 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +71 Elo | ARI 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 58.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.614th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.9 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.5 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 30th of 3022–59 | Road vs home | 43–3814th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 3–11 ARI in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.