Chicago Cubs at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Cody BellingerBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Justin SteelePitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Heim singled to center, Jung scored, Langford to second, García to third.3–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 9Jankowski homered to right (396 feet).3–3
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 33–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking3–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 9Busch scored on Leclerc wild pitch, Hoerner to second on wild pitch by Leclerc, Hoerner safe at third on throwing error by catcher Heim.3–2
- 9Busch scored on Leclerc wild pitch, Hoerner to second on wild pitch by Leclerc, Hoerner safe at third on throwing error by catcher Heim.3–2
- 6García homered to left (407 feet).2–2
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 32–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 22–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 12–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 6Bellinger doubled to right, Suzuki scored.2–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 4Langford hit sacrifice fly to center, Jung scored.1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 2Swanson hit sacrifice fly to center, Morel scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 54%
- ML CHC +110 / TEX -130
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.4 pts
- TEX: Elo 57.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- TEX -119
- CHC +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.1 – 4.4 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +7 | CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +54 Elo | TEX 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.43rd of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +1.04th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 19th of 3037–42 | Road vs home | 50–314th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 2–1 TEX in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.