Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Jacob StallingsBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Christian WalkerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 5Gurriel Jr. doubled to left, Marte scored.1–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 5Marte safe at first on fielding error by left fielder Jones, Barnhart scored on error, Marte to second on error.1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 5Stallings singled to left, Toglia scored, Cave to second.1–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 1Walker homered to left center (409 feet), Gurriel Jr. scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Gurriel Jr. singled to center, Carroll scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 64%
- ML COL +165 / ARI -200
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- ARI: Elo 61.4%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- ARI -177
- COL +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.9 – 5.1 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1449 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +9 | COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +80 Elo | ARI 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 60.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 60.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 9.01st of 30 |
| 30th of 309.0 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−4.7 | Margin | +4.72nd of 30 |
| 10th of 151–2 | Road vs home | 2–11st of 15 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 4–12 ARI in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 16.