Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Brenton DoyleBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Austin GomberPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Diamondbacks- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tommy HenryPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Doyle homered to left (383 feet), Montero scored.9–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–4
- 5Gurriel Jr. homered to left center (414 feet).7–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging7–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 17–3
- 5McMahon hit sacrifice fly to center, Jones scored.7–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–3
- 5Jones tripled to right, Blackmon scored and Bryant scored.6–3
- 5Pitch 11 : Ball In Play6–3
- 5Pitch 10 : Ball 34–3
- 5Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 5Pitch 8 : Ball 24–3
- 5Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 14–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 5Blackmon doubled to right, Doyle scored and Montero scored.4–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 4Suárez homered to left center (402 feet).2–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 2Tovar homered to left center (402 feet), Díaz scored.2–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Moreno grounded out to shortstop, Carroll scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Gurriel Jr. doubled to right, Marte scored, Carroll to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 62%
- ML COL +155 / ARI -185
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- ARI: Elo 61.0%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -166
- COL +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.2 – 5.3 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1445 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −10 | COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ARI: Tommy Henry: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +78 Elo | ARI 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 60.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 60.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.614th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.9 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.5 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 30th of 3022–59 | Road vs home | 43–3814th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 3–12 ARI in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 15.